If Game of Thrones has taught us anything, it’s that the true survivors are the ones with the intangibles. Tyrion Lannister’s swagger has saved his bacon more than once; Petyr Baelish’s silver tongue is pretty much the only thing that keeps him from meeting the working end of a Moon Door. But looking at the betting odds for tonight’s episode, it’s pretty clear that while intangibles help, the ones getting out alive will have very real assets on their side. Got dragons? Or maybe a trusty sword named Needle? You’re safe! That said, if you have yourself a Faith Militant troupe or a little thing called Greyscale, it might be time to review your life insurance policy.

Arya Stark

Last we saw Arya Stark she had backed out of poisoning a theater actress, retrieved her sword, Needle, and was plotting her escape from the House of Black and White. The Waif (aka The Worst) made a total Waif move and ratted her out to Jaqen H’ghar, who subsequently told her to track Arya down and kill her. This would seem to put Arya in grave danger, considering how many beat-downs she suffered at the Waif’s hands this season—but c’mon. She’s not “no one” anymore; she’s Arya Freaking Stark. And when is she going to die? Not today.
Death Pool Odds: 33/1
Chance of death: 2.94%

Macall B. Polay/HBO

Last we saw Arya Stark she had backed out of poisoning a theater actress, retrieved her sword, Needle, and was plotting her escape from the House of Black and White. The Waif (aka The Worst) made a total Waif move and ratted her out to Jaqen H’ghar, who subsequently told her to track Arya down and kill her. This would seem to put Arya in grave danger, considering how many beat-downs she suffered at the Waif’s hands this season—but c’mon. She’s not “no one” anymore; she’s Arya Freaking Stark. And when is she going to die? Not today.
Death Pool Odds: 33/1
Chance of death: 2.94%

Daario Naharis

Daario Naharis survived years of combat in the fighting pits, but these days he’s Daenerys Targaryen’s right hand, which means his life is a fighting pit. Dany will be fine; she has dragons and an army of Dothraki warriors. Daario, though, just has his wits. He might be good for another episode or so, but not forever.
Death Pool Odds: 8/1
Chance of death: 11.11%

Macall B. Polay/HBO

Daario Naharis survived years of combat in the fighting pits, but these days he’s Daenerys Targaryen’s right hand, which means his life is a fighting pit. Dany will be fine; she has dragons and an army of Dothraki warriors. Daario, though, just has his wits. He might be good for another episode or so, but not forever.
Death Pool Odds: 8/1
Chance of death: 11.11%

High Sparrow

Now that Mr. Holier-Than-Thou orchestrated a new (and weirdly uncomfortable) alliance between the crown (King Tommen) and his Faith Militant, he’s got more power than the Pope. But while the people of King’s Landing seem stoked on this blessed union, Jaime Lannister (and likely half of House Tyrell), would be happy to cut that self-satisfied smirk off of his face.
Death Pool Odds: 3/11
Chance of death: 78.57%

Macall B. Polay/HBO

Now that Mr. Holier-Than-Thou orchestrated a new (and weirdly uncomfortable) alliance between the crown (King Tommen) and his Faith Militant, he’s got more power than the Pope. But while the people of King’s Landing seem stoked on this blessed union, Jaime Lannister (and likely half of House Tyrell), would be happy to cut that self-satisfied smirk off of his face.
Death Pool Odds: 3/11
Chance of death: 78.57%

Daenerys Targaryen

Last week on Game of Thrones, Dany finally made explicit the goal she’s had from the start: taking the Seven Kingdoms. Literally nothing is stopping this woman. She has dragons, an army of Dothraki, an army of Unsullied, and Tyrion Lannister. (And probably some other awesome stuff we’re not even remembering right now. Oh yeah, she can never die in a fire.) Will there be a lot of carnage on her way to the Iron Throne? Yeah, probs. Will she survive all of it? Of course.
Death Pool Odds: 33/1
Chance of death: 2.94%

Macall B. Polay/HBO

Last week on Game of Thrones, Dany finally made explicit the goal she’s had from the start: taking the Seven Kingdoms. Literally nothing is stopping this woman. She has dragons, an army of Dothraki, an army of Unsullied, and Tyrion Lannister. (And probably some other awesome stuff we’re not even remembering right now. Oh yeah, she can never die in a fire.) Will there be a lot of carnage on her way to the Iron Throne? Yeah, probs. Will she survive all of it? Of course.
Death Pool Odds: 33/1
Chance of death: 2.94%

Jorah Mormont

After months of trying, Jorah Mormont finally got back into Dany’s good graces. That’s nice. But he also has Greyscale, which is less nice than it is terminal. The Mother of Dragons may have sent him off to get healed, but there really isn’t a cure, so at some point this dude is just toast. Really scaly toast. But, if Iain Glen—the actor who plays Ser Jorah—gets his way, he’ll die schtupping Khaleesi. Which would be … something.
Death Pool Odds: 5/1
Chance of death: 16.67%

Helen Sloan/HBO

After months of trying, Jorah Mormont finally got back into Dany’s good graces. That’s nice. But he also has Greyscale, which is less nice than it is terminal. The Mother of Dragons may have sent him off to get healed, but there really isn’t a cure, so at some point this dude is just toast. Really scaly toast. But, if Iain Glen—the actor who plays Ser Jorah—gets his way, he’ll die schtupping Khaleesi. Which would be … something.
Death Pool Odds: 5/1
Chance of death: 16.67%

Sansa Stark and Jon Snow

It’s probably cheating to combine the odds for Sansa and Jon, but now that they’ve joined forces to bring the pain to Ramsay Bolton and re-take the North, their fates are completely intertwined. And thus, so are their odds. Sansa and Jon have survived Ramsay and death, respectively—nothing can kill them now.
Sansa’s Death Pool Odds: 22/1
Chance of death: 4.35%
Jon’s Death Pool Odds: 22/1
Chance of death: 4.35%

Helen Sloan/HBO

It’s probably cheating to combine the odds for Sansa and Jon, but now that they’ve joined forces to bring the pain to Ramsay Bolton and re-take the North, their fates are completely intertwined. And thus, so are their odds. Sansa and Jon have survived Ramsay and death, respectively—nothing can kill them now.
Sansa’s Death Pool Odds: 22/1
Chance of death: 4.35%
Jon’s Death Pool Odds: 22/1
Chance of death: 4.35%

Ramsay Snow

Ramsay didn’t really show up much last week, but dude has it coming. And it’s coming in the form of the Starks. The North remembers, jerkface.
Death Pool Odds: 6/1
Chance of death: 14.29%

Helen Sloan/HBO

Ramsay didn’t really show up much last week, but dude has it coming. And it’s coming in the form of the Starks. The North remembers, jerkface.
Death Pool Odds: 6/1
Chance of death: 14.29%

Tyrion Lannister

Tyrion also hasn’t shown up much lately, but so long as he hasn’t incited a war between the slaves and masters in Meereen (or really pissed off Missandei and/or Grey Worm), he’s fine.
Death Pool Odds: 40/1
Chance of death: 2.44%

Macall B. Polay/HBO

Tyrion also hasn’t shown up much lately, but so long as he hasn’t incited a war between the slaves and masters in Meereen (or really pissed off Missandei and/or Grey Worm), he’s fine.
Death Pool Odds: 40/1
Chance of death: 2.44%

Theon Greyjoy

Technically, both Yara and Theon Greyjoy are up a creek after Yara’s failed attempt at the Salt Throne. But Theon’s odds are much worse than his sister’s. (She’s currently at 14/1, so she has a 6.67 percent chance of death.) And really, Theon Greyjoy has looked like a dead man walking for a long time. He might not die tonight, but his chances of getting out of this whole ordeal alive are pretty slim.
Death Pool Odds: 6/1
Chance of death: 14.29%

Helen Sloan/HBO

Technically, both Yara and Theon Greyjoy are up a creek after Yara’s failed attempt at the Salt Throne. But Theon’s odds are much worse than his sister’s. (She’s currently at 14/1, so she has a 6.67 percent chance of death.) And really, Theon Greyjoy has looked like a dead man walking for a long time. He might not die tonight, but his chances of getting out of this whole ordeal alive are pretty slim.
Death Pool Odds: 6/1
Chance of death: 14.29%

Meera Reed

Normally, Meera wouldn’t be a big factor, but we’re including her here because her odds are just so incredibly good. Is it being under the protection of Benjen Stark that is keeping her so safe? That’s got to be part of it, but Bran Stark is also being watched by Benjen too, and his odds are 22/1 (4.35 percent chance of death). Well, Meera can walk, so that helps, but still! Way to be a survivor, Meera!
Death Pool Odds: 66/1
Chance of death: 1.49%

Helen Sloan/HBO

Normally, Meera wouldn’t be a big factor, but we’re including her here because her odds are just so incredibly good. Is it being under the protection of Benjen Stark that is keeping her so safe? That’s got to be part of it, but Bran Stark is also being watched by Benjen too, and his odds are 22/1 (4.35 percent chance of death). Well, Meera can walk, so that helps, but still! Way to be a survivor, Meera!
Death Pool Odds: 66/1
Chance of death: 1.49%

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Game of Thrones Death Pool: Whose Turn Is It to Die?